3 Things to Do This Weekend

It's Monday, and it's not too early to look ahead to this weekend: it will be excellent. You can read two interesting articles, below, and join us if you like in the incredibly beautiful, snow-covered Rocky Mountains.

First, an invitation. Saturday and Sunday is the Rocky Mountain Freestyle Divisional Championship at Winter Park Resort. If you're interested in seeing some of the best young mogul skiers in the country duke it out to go to the National Championships in two weeks (in Sun Valley, ID), come and join us! You can root for our daughter, and all her friends. We'll have a BBQ at our place afterwards. You don't need to ski, and you can see the competition from the base. Send me an email if you'd like to join us!

When other people write brilliantly, I am inclined to share it instead of rewrite it. Here are two of them:

Alan Greenspan famously said that we're feeling an irrational exuberance. In the 2000's, as the market roared ever higher, that seemed appropriate. Today it's the opposite--we feel "crappy," an irrational ex-poop-erance. In Don't Get Bitten by Biases, Linda Martinson, the President of Baron Investments, writes very clearly about the irrational behaviors we have all seen recently and gives us confidence that rational investing will win in the end. Consider reading it this weekend.

Finally, the third enjoyable piece of writing comes from Convergex. They warn that simplifying the complex is dangerous. The market is infinitely more complex than predictions based off Presidential politics, or media reporting, make it appear. Yet we need to do this in order to make sense of the chaos.

It's Monday, and it's not too early to look ahead to this weekend: it will be excellent. You can read two interesting articles, below, and join us if you like in the incredibly beautiful, snow-covered Rocky Mountains.

First, an invitation. Saturday and Sunday is the Rocky Mountain Freestyle Divisional Championship at Winter Park ResortIf you're interested in seeing some of the best young mogul skiers in the country duke it out to go to the National Championships in two weeks (in Sun Valley, ID), come and join us! You can root for our daughter, and all her friends. We'll have a BBQ at our place afterwards. You don't need to ski, and you can see the competition from the base. Send me an email if you'd like to join us!

When other people write brilliantly, I am inclined to share it instead of rewrite it. Here are two of them:

Alan Greenspan famously said that we're feeling an irrational exuberance. In the 2000's, as the market roared ever higher, that seemed appropriate. Today it's the opposite--we feel "crappy," an irrational ex-poop-erance. In Don't Get Bitten by Biases, Linda Martinson, the President of Baron Investments, writes very clearly about the irrational behaviors we have all seen recently and gives us confidence that rational investing will win in the end. Consider reading it this weekend.

Finally, the third enjoyable piece of writing comes from Convergex. They warn that simplifying the complex is dangerous. The market is infinitely more complex than predictions based off Presidential politics, or media reporting, make it appear. Yet we need to do this in order to make sense of the chaos.

I quote Convergex at length:

"There are three rules for writing a novel.  Unfortunately, no one knows what they are.” That pithy quote comes courtesy of British writer Somerset Maugham.  And despite the lack of guidance offered in his observation, Maugham was both prolific and popular in the 1930s. (He was reputed to be the decade’s best-paid writer, the JK Rowling/Stephen King of his day).  His real point: there are no rules, let alone a neatly packaged instruction manual with three bullet points on a page.

Wall Street would similarly love to have a three-part paradigm to understanding markets.  It doesn’t actually exist, of course, but that doesn’t stop us.  There is “Tech/Media/Telecomm” – the three industries that most often form an analytical cluster among both investors and analysts. Then there is “Industry Analysis/Company Analysis/Valuation” – the three parts of any research report.  Trinities appear as often in modern finance as they do in Sunday school.

The latest triad belongs to what is called the “Trump Trade”: Industrials, Materials and Financial stocks. These three groups should all benefit from the now well-known (if still not exactly determined) and upcoming (hopefully) package of tax cuts, deregulation, and infrastructure.  And yes, even things that come in three (favored sectors) have to explain themselves in threes (potential catalysts).

Food for the mind and the body. Enjoy this fantastic week!

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