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Trade War Tweets

Recently, the media has discussed a potential trade war with one or more countries after President Trump threatened a tariff on steel and aluminum. In light of this, we asked several of our key investment partners for insights. I have filtered through and included some of what I think are three of the more helpful insights.

So, in no particular order, here are anonymous insights from some of the people we trust as investment research partners:

"Current events and short-term market reactions are largely random, unpredictable and disconnected from fundamentals. Rhetoric and proposed policies rarely turn out as initially introduced and take months or years to evolve into policy and get implemented. The sausage rarely ends up looking like it did when it started. Even if we knew the details of final policy it would take significant time to formulate any kind of meaningful opinion as to what the impact might be.

“Events such as Trump’s comments on a potential steel tariff can lead to overreactions in the market that result in increased volatility and fear and uncertainty—which, generally speaking, helps open up opportunities for us to put capital to work.

“Investors overly punishing or rewarding certain sectors/companies based on headlines may create opportunities for us to invest in quality companies trading at undemanding valuations. We may use the increased fear and uncertainty to add to our existing positions, or establish new ones, if we believe the business fundamentals remain solid.

What is the best action you can take?

It should come as no surprise, I hope, that we recommend contacting your wealth manager if any of the recent newsworthy events cause a pause, or concern. Don't be surprised when your wealth manager says something along the lines of, "this, too, shall pass." Because we are investing for the duration of your lives, and we are solving a much bigger--much more personal problem--how to provide income for the duration of your lives. At the end of the day, we believe implementing a plan designed to meet your personal goals will have a bigger impact on your financial future than today's tweets and other news.

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